BTC WEEKLY
Bitcoin Health Meter
Composite Score
Robust
Healthy
Mixed
Strained
Fragile
54.2
Mixed
Robust = network expanding, corporate bid active, holders patient, leverage clean. Fragile = the opposite.
BTC $78953 (-2.25% 24h)
A proprietary composite of nine free, public data streams — network security, the corporate BTC bid, holder behavior, market structure, and macro. Higher is healthier. Refreshes daily.
Sub-scores
Network Health
41.6
Hashrate trend · difficulty
Demand Stack
48
STRC par · MSTR mNAV
Holder Conviction
78
MVRV
Market Structure
45
Funding · stablecoin liquidity
Macro & Sentiment
69.2
Fear & Greed · DXY
Inputs
Hashrate (30d vs 90d)Compares the network's mining power over the last 30 days vs the last 90. Rising = miners adding machines (bullish). Falling = miners unplugging.
48
30d 964 EH/s · 90d 985 EH/s · ratio 0.979
mempool.space — ratio > 1 = expanding, < 1 = contracting
Next Difficulty AdjustmentEvery two weeks Bitcoin auto-adjusts mining difficulty. A positive next adjustment means miners are crowding in faster than expected (confident). Negative means they're leaving.
32
-3.09% est · 3% through epoch
mempool.space — positive = miner confidence growing
$STRC vs $100 ParSTRC is Strategy's preferred stock, designed to trade at $100. When it stays tight to par, Strategy can keep issuing it and using the cash to buy Bitcoin — a constant corporate bid.
60
$99.19 · $-0.81 from par
Yahoo Finance — tight to par means active corporate BTC bid intact
MSTR mNAV PremiumStrategy's market cap divided by the value of the BTC it owns. Above 1.0 means the market is paying a premium, so Strategy can issue more stock and buy more BTC. Below 1.0 the flywheel breaks.
40
1.06× · MSTR $177.42 · 605000 BTC held
Derived — premium > 1 enables equity-funded BTC accumulation flywheel
MVRV RatioThe current price of all Bitcoin in circulation divided by what it was last bought for on average. Below 1 = most holders underwater (historic buy zone). Above 3.5 = holders deep in profit and likely to sell.
78
1.46
CoinMetrics — < 1 generational value · > 3.5 distribution risk
Perp Funding (annualized)On perpetual futures, leveraged long positions pay shorts a fee when positioning is crowded long. Extreme positive funding = euphoric leverage (usually right before a flush). Low or negative = clean positioning.
55
+10.95%
OKX BTC-USDT swap — extreme positive = crowded longs
Stablecoin Cap (7d Δ)Total dollars parked in USDT, USDC, and DAI — think of it as dry powder waiting to deploy. Growing = buying capacity building. Shrinking = money leaving crypto entirely.
35
$271.3B · -0.33%
DefiLlama (USDT + USDC + DAI) — growth = dry powder building
Crypto Fear & Greed (contrarian)The popular sentiment index, inverted. Extreme fear has historically preceded the best forward returns; euphoria has preceded tops.
70
31 · Fear
alternative.me — extreme fear has historically preceded forward returns
Dollar Index (30d)How strong the U.S. dollar is vs a basket of other currencies, change over the last month. A weaker dollar typically eases global financial conditions and supports Bitcoin.
68
118.04 · -0.72% 30d
FRED DTWEXBGS — weaker dollar typically supportive for BTC
Methodology. Nine inputs roll up into five sub-scores. Each input is mapped to a 0–100 health score using fixed thresholds documented in
Why these weights. Demand Stack carries the most weight (30%) because in the ETF and corporate-treasury era, who's buying the float is the load-bearing story. Network Health (20%), Holder Conviction (20%), and Market Structure (20%) each get an equal slice as the underlying structural signals — what miners are doing, what long-term holders are doing, and how derivatives positioning is leaning. Macro & Sentiment is capped at 10% because it's the noisiest input and tends to echo what the other categories already capture.
Not a buy or sell signal. The meter measures structural health, not momentum. It is intentionally somewhat contrarian: it tends to peak in early-bull or post-capitulation phases when conviction is high and leverage is clean, and to fall during late-bull euphoria when funding is hot and holders are deep in profit. Price can keep rising while the meter declines — that's the point.
Sources. mempool.space · Yahoo Finance · CoinMetrics community · OKX · DefiLlama · alternative.me · FRED · CoinGecko.
scripts/fetch-health-meter.js. Refreshed daily at 00:30 UTC. All sources are free and public.
Why these weights. Demand Stack carries the most weight (30%) because in the ETF and corporate-treasury era, who's buying the float is the load-bearing story. Network Health (20%), Holder Conviction (20%), and Market Structure (20%) each get an equal slice as the underlying structural signals — what miners are doing, what long-term holders are doing, and how derivatives positioning is leaning. Macro & Sentiment is capped at 10% because it's the noisiest input and tends to echo what the other categories already capture.
Not a buy or sell signal. The meter measures structural health, not momentum. It is intentionally somewhat contrarian: it tends to peak in early-bull or post-capitulation phases when conviction is high and leverage is clean, and to fall during late-bull euphoria when funding is hot and holders are deep in profit. Price can keep rising while the meter declines — that's the point.
Sources. mempool.space · Yahoo Finance · CoinMetrics community · OKX · DefiLlama · alternative.me · FRED · CoinGecko.